March 19, 2019

NGDP Outlook Update – Outlook Moves Lower

The NGDP outlook continues to deteriorate. We’d known for a few quarters now that growth was likely to slacken in 2019 compared with the robust 2018, but the combined effects of the market draw down and weaker than forecasted NGDP and NGDI have sapped the model’s outlook far beyond what was anticipated. To put some numbers to it, in late September 2018, our system forecasted about 5.2% year-over-year growth in Q4 2019. The Q4 2019 forecast fell further to 3.4% in mid-January and thence to a meager 2.9% in the latest read. [Note that if you look at the NGDP… Read More