Market Monetarism is the theory that markets know best where an economy is headed. Market expectations thus drive actions, and actions are the economy. In short, market expectations drive the economy. Influence market expectations and you drive the economy. Thus, the market reaction to a monetary policy change is the monetary policy.
Made up of early and active participants in the macroeconomic blogosphere where the Market Monetarist School was born, NGDP Advisers provides readers with proven analysis so that business and trading decisions can be made under the best-informed understanding of this macroeconomic outlook.
Put plainly, we are confident we have a better understanding of international macro, allowing us to help investors shed the blindfolds often placed over their eyes by news and analyses. We want our readers to stop relying on rumors and half-baked explanations for market moves, and to instead grasp the central role of monetary policy and expectations in market price movements.
Through the perspective provided by Market Monetarism, we strive to provide our readers with analyses that cut to the heart of central bank actions, and read implied market forecasts for nominal growth, an indispensable insight for modern-day investment, risk management and allocation decisions.
Of course we do not advocate or condone direct action but do sympathise with protests, such as the one captured below however confused in their precise motives, while central banks fail to support strong and stable nominal growth.
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NGDP Advisers is a team of four, based on four continents:
James Alexander spent ten years studying economics and then economic history at the LSE culminating in a PhD. Having done a variety of real jobs (fishmonger and bicycle courier) while studying, he then worked for 25 years in the City of London researching and investing in banks. After two years as a journalist/researcher at The Banker magazine he spent ten years on the sell-side at various investment banks followed by thirteen on the buy-side at M&G Investments as Head of Global Equity Research, specializing in financials.
James correctly called the depth of the financial crisis based largely on a judgment about over-leveraged and poorly run banks within the context of a liquidity crisis, caused (he now recognizes) by over-tight monetary policy; central bankers had incorrect focus on temporary inflation concerns and miscellaneous bubble spotting when they should have been focusing on weak and falling prospects for aggregate demand, i.e. Nominal GDP expectations.
Benjamin Cole is a veteran financial journalist, formerly of U.S. News & World Report, The Los Angeles Herald Examiner, Investor’s Business Daily and the Los Angeles Business Journal.
Benjamin has also authored two books for Bloomberg Press, including the award-winning The Pied Pipers of Wall Street: How Analysts Sell You Down the River, and also The New Investor Relations: Expert Perspectives on the State of the Art. He has also been self-employed as freelance writer, fruit-tree farmer (pictured with them here), woodworker and faux finisher.
At NGDP Advisers, Cole tries to translate econo-talk into English, and make the world aware of the Market Monetarist perspective.
Justin Irving is an applied econometrician with specialties in forecasting models. Justin has a BSc and BA from the University of Vermont and an MSc from Uppsala Universitet in Sweden.
Justin has worked in forecasting, stress testing, and model validation for top financial services companies in the U.S. He was an early convert to the Market Monetarist framework and has worked to implement Market Monetarist conclusions in econometric models.
Marcus Nunes has taught macroeconomics at the undergraduate and MBA levels, has worked as Chief-Economist for multinational financial and non-financial corporations and as economic consultant for hedge fund and money managers. For the past several years he has blogged intensively, being one of the early members of the “Market Monetarist” school of economic thought.
Marcus is a restless soul (as you can see here), a characteristic that has stopped him from having a traditional career path. Marcus has lived, both as a student and as a professional, in several countries. As a young boarding school student he shared a dorm with a Jew, a German and a Palestinian. That taught him that the world was not “black & white” and that most things need to be challenged.