NGDP Advisers NGDP Growth Forecast Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day. Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast. Data Watch Worker Compensation Still a Drag On Fed’s Inflation Target 2 Nov 2018The “Bastiat Boom” 16 Oct 2018“All the light you cannot see” 30 Sep 2018 FOMC Watch Taking credit where no credit is due 16 Nov 2018We don´t have a “high pressure” economy, but a “low pressure” one 3 Nov 2018The FOMC deceives itself 29 Oct 2018 Market Watch Beginning to get interesting 11 Aug 2018Markets quiet but imply feeble nominal growth 17 Jul 2018All quiet ahead of the beginning of (trade) war 24 Jun 2018 Join our mailing list now for all new material: Email Address Consent I give NGDP Advisers permission to collect and use my data submitted in this form.Give consent that we may collect and use your data. Subscribe Now 0% Complete Latest blog posts Timothy Taylor Says Fed Will Resort to QE Early in Next Recession—But Will That Work? 20 Nov 2018Establishment Macroeconomists Tell Fed To Ease Off (!) 18 Nov 201811 years on, and the Great Recession and its aftermath are still a “mystery” 11 Nov 2018 Tenets Of Our View We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers. To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points: 1. The-price-of-money 2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy 3. Production-cant-be-faked 4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters 5. There-is-no-business-cycle 6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter 7. Markets-are-good-forecasters RSS FeedTimothy Taylor Says Fed Will Resort to QE Early in Next Recession—But Will That Work? November 20, 2018Global interest rates are still near historical lows; indeed 10-year German bunds pay 0.49% interest, and 10-year Japanese government bonds pay 0.12%. The US pays more, a 10-year Treasury offers 3.10% or so. Timothy Taylor of the excellent Conversable Economist pointed out recently that the US Federal Reserve will likely face the zero bound early […] Benjamin Cole In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism. Our business model is to seek support for the work we do via donations - readers and supporters can pay us what they feel is appropriate to the value they receive from our insights. Supporters can make regular donations via the donate button through paypal or credit cards.