NGDP Advisers NGDP Growth Forecast Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day. Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast. Data Watch Drive! 16 Aug 2018The employment report: almost perfectly anticipated 3 Aug 2018UK Monetary Policy: walking to stand still (eh? what?) 3 Aug 2018 FOMC Watch Powell: Dreaming the impossible dream 17 Jul 2018Powell was different, but humdrum 16 Jun 2018May FOMC Statement 2 May 2018 Market Watch Beginning to get interesting 11 Aug 2018Markets quiet but imply feeble nominal growth 17 Jul 2018All quiet ahead of the beginning of (trade) war 24 Jun 2018 Join our mailing list now for all new material: Email Address Consent I give NGDP Advisers permission to collect and use my data submitted in this form.Give consent that we may collect and use your data. Subscribe Now 0% Complete Latest blog posts Unit Labor Costs Falling Again In US 16 Aug 2018The Fed´s unending search for “ammunition” 14 Aug 2018Sunday remininses: John Taylor on NGDP Level Targeting 5 Aug 2018 Tenets Of Our View We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers. To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points: 1. The-price-of-money 2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy 3. Production-cant-be-faked 4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters 5. There-is-no-business-cycle 6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter 7. Markets-are-good-forecasters RSS FeedDrive! August 16, 2018In U.S.: retail sales show midsummer muscle We read “U.S. retail sales rose a healthy 0.5% in July, showing the economy still has plenty of punch left at midsummer.” It´s all about gas prices and American’s penchant for driving! Once you subtract gasoline sales from total retail sales, consumers are not “showing muscle” or “punch.” […] Marcus Nunes In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism. Our business model is to seek support for the work we do via donations - readers and supporters can pay us what they feel is appropriate to the value they receive from our insights. Supporters can make regular donations via the donate button through paypal or credit cards.