NGDP Advisers

In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.

 NGDP Growth Forecast

Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.

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Tenets Of Our View

We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.

To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:

1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters


  • Globalism, Monetary Policy, Housing Prices and Trade Policy June 18, 2018
    The viewpoints of the world’s macroeconomists are becoming anachronisms, not updated for a global economy and housing costs. For starters, there are some storm signals out there in monetary-land; notably Far East investors are fearful of capital flight. “U.S. rate hikes have sorted emerging markets into winners and losers as investors pull capital from particularly […]
    Benjamin Cole