NGDP Advisers NGDP Growth Forecast Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day. Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast. Data Watch Two Labor Markets: The “Strong” & the “Weak” 4 Jan 2019Where did the tax cuts go? 22 Dec 2018The TTC (Trump Tax Cut) & Retail Sales 14 Dec 2018 FOMC Watch “The Fed is doing an excellent job” 30 Nov 2018Taking credit where no credit is due 16 Nov 2018We don´t have a “high pressure” economy, but a “low pressure” one 3 Nov 2018 Market Watch After the storm, the “ship loses steam” 27 Dec 2018Bad Omens 18 Dec 2018Is the economy headed for recession? 6 Dec 2018 Join our mailing list now for all new material: Email Address Consent I give NGDP Advisers permission to collect and use my data submitted in this form.Give consent that we may collect and use your data. Subscribe Now 0% Complete Latest blog posts Does a Central Bank Seek “Credibility—Or a Balance of “Dis-credibility”? 9 Mar 2019Trade Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Blowing Asset Bubbles 8 Feb 2019Call me “something” 23 Jan 2019 Tenets Of Our View We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers. To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points: 1. The-price-of-money 2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy 3. Production-cant-be-faked 4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters 5. There-is-no-business-cycle 6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter 7. Markets-are-good-forecasters RSS FeedDoes a Central Bank Seek “Credibility—Or a Balance of “Dis-credibility”? March 9, 2019In monetary-policy circles, hardly a day passes without somebody somewhere declaring, sometimes in the form of a florid proclamation, that a central bank must have “credibility.” Otherwise, it is ominously posited, we slide soon into the Weimar Republic, although some later variants suggest the modern-day Japan scenario. That is, no one trusts the central bank […] Benjamin Cole In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism. Our business model is to seek support for the work we do via donations - readers and supporters can pay us what they feel is appropriate to the value they receive from our insights. Supporters can make regular donations via the donate button through paypal or credit cards.