NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.
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Tenets Of Our View
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
RSS Feed
- Does a Central Bank Seek “Credibility—Or a Balance of “Dis-credibility”? March 9, 2019In monetary-policy circles, hardly a day passes without somebody somewhere declaring, sometimes in the form of a florid proclamation, that a central bank must have “credibility.” Otherwise, it is ominously posited, we slide soon into the Weimar Republic, although some later variants suggest the modern-day Japan scenario. That is, no one trusts the central bank […]Benjamin Cole
In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
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