NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.
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Tenets Of Our View
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
RSS Feed
- Trade Deficits, Monetary Policy, and Blowing Asset Bubbles February 8, 2019Chronic and large US current-account trade deficits lead to vulnerable and bloated domestic asset values—no, that it is not the proposition of Trump Administration China-bashers, but rather the conclusion of the globalist International Monetary Fund. The short story: Big and sustained current-account trade deficits axiomatically produce large capital inflows to the US. That Niagara of […]Benjamin Cole
In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
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