NGDP Advisers NGDP Growth Forecast Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day. Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast. Data Watch Manufacturing is still rebounding from the “Yellen slump”. 14 Sep 2018Retail Sales, rising on “gas fumes” 14 Sep 2018CPI Core Sans Shelter Rising at 0.6% Annually 14 Sep 2018 FOMC Watch “Get ready for here I come” 11 Sep 2018Ten years later, they still have the wrong perspective on the 2008 crisis 9 Sep 2018Jackson Hole 2018 – A time-travel 27 Aug 2018 Market Watch Beginning to get interesting 11 Aug 2018Markets quiet but imply feeble nominal growth 17 Jul 2018All quiet ahead of the beginning of (trade) war 24 Jun 2018 Join our mailing list now for all new material: Email Address Consent I give NGDP Advisers permission to collect and use my data submitted in this form.Give consent that we may collect and use your data. Subscribe Now 0% Complete Latest blog posts David Beckworth: The Fed Is Loading Torpedo Tubes, USS Economy in Sight 22 Sep 2018Yellen is confused & confuses 16 Sep 2018“If You Want To Know What Is Happening in a City, Don’t Read the Headlines. Read the Newspaper Classifieds.” 9 Sep 2018 Tenets Of Our View We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers. To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points: 1. The-price-of-money 2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy 3. Production-cant-be-faked 4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters 5. There-is-no-business-cycle 6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter 7. Markets-are-good-forecasters RSS FeedDavid Beckworth: The Fed Is Loading Torpedo Tubes, USS Economy in Sight September 22, 2018When the yield curve inverts, the US economy capsizes, sure as—well, sure as running some torpedoes into the hull of the USS Economy. David Beckworth’s latest and worthy post regards the rather cavalier attitude at the US Federal Reserve as the central bank, seemingly on automatic pilot, targets rate hikes through next year. The above […] Benjamin Cole In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism. Our business model is to seek support for the work we do via donations - readers and supporters can pay us what they feel is appropriate to the value they receive from our insights. Supporters can make regular donations via the donate button through paypal or credit cards.