NGDP Advisers

 NGDP Growth Forecast

Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.

Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.

 

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Tenets Of Our View

We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.

To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:

1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters

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  • The Fed´s unending search for “ammunition” August 14, 2018
    From Brad DeLong, who doesn´t think the economy is “solid”: Economic developments over the past 20 years have taught – or ought to have taught – the US Federal Reserve four lessons. Yet the Fed’s current policy posture raises the question of whether it has internalized any of them. The first lesson is that, at […]
    Marcus Nunes

In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.

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