NGDP Advisers

 NGDP Growth Forecast

Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.

Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.

 

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Tenets Of Our View

We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.

To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:

1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters

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  • Yellen is confused & confuses September 16, 2018
    She made two apparently contradictory statements on Friday (Sept 14). In one: Former Federal Reserve Chairwoman Janet Yellen said Friday that she is concerned the economy might overheat. “At a time like this, I would be worried that the economy is in a situation where it could overheat,” Yellen told reporters on the sidelines of […]
    Marcus Nunes

In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.

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