NGDP Advisers NGDP Growth Forecast Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day. Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast. Data Watch “All the light you cannot see” 30 Sep 2018Manufacturing is still rebounding from the “Yellen slump”. 14 Sep 2018Retail Sales, rising on “gas fumes” 14 Sep 2018 FOMC Watch The Fed´s monetary policy has become dysfunctional 11 Oct 2018Late into the first quarter of the 21st century, the Fed is still in the Dark Age! 4 Oct 2018The “Term Premium” Meme 27 Sep 2018 Market Watch Beginning to get interesting 11 Aug 2018Markets quiet but imply feeble nominal growth 17 Jul 2018All quiet ahead of the beginning of (trade) war 24 Jun 2018 Join our mailing list now for all new material: Email Address Consent I give NGDP Advisers permission to collect and use my data submitted in this form.Give consent that we may collect and use your data. Subscribe Now 0% Complete Latest blog posts The Fed Taunts Hyman Minsky? 11 Oct 2018China weighs on copper prices 6 Oct 2018Financing World War II: Lessons From Japan and the US 2 Oct 2018 Tenets Of Our View We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers. To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points: 1. The-price-of-money 2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy 3. Production-cant-be-faked 4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters 5. There-is-no-business-cycle 6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter 7. Markets-are-good-forecasters RSS FeedThe Fed´s monetary policy has become dysfunctional October 11, 2018Tim Duy is a well known “Fed Watcher”. As such what he writes does not necessarily reflect his views but what he sees as the Fed´s view. In “Fed intent on raising rates even if the economy sours”, we read: A combination of weak labor force growth, solid employment growth, a lower unemployment rate, and […] Marcus Nunes In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism. Our business model is to seek support for the work we do via donations - readers and supporters can pay us what they feel is appropriate to the value they receive from our insights. Supporters can make regular donations via the donate button through paypal or credit cards.