In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
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Tenets Of Our View
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
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- The Federal Reserve Genuflects Again to ‘Sustainable” 4.7% Unemployment Rates, and 1.8% Real GDP Growth Rates. Investor Beware. May 18, 2018The US Federal Reserve wants a higher rate of unemployment, at least from reading missives from the San Francisco branch. And slower economic growth. In its May 10 “Fed Views”, the San Francisco branch posits that 4.7% is the lowest “sustainable” unemployment rate, and 1.8% the maximum “sustainable” real GDP growth rate. “We estimate 2.8% […]Benjamin Cole
