In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
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NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
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Tenets Of Our View (free to view)
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
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- For the Fed, misses on the downside are always “temporary” or “transient” June 27, 2017A good example from today´s speech by Philly Fed president Patrick Harker: Growth for 2017 so far is more or less what we expected. The first quarter was relatively weak, which has been the case for first quarters over the past several years. That’s what we’ve come to expect at this point, so it’s not […]Marcus Nunes
