NGDP Advisers

 NGDP Growth Forecast

Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.

Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.

 

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Tenets Of Our View

We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.

To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:

1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters

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  • The TTC (Trump Tax Cut) & Retail Sales December 14, 2018
    The “optimist”: A drop in prices at the pump and a pick-up in wages at the low end of the income strata are delivering more broad-based gains in consumer spending. Look for consumers to remain a driver of GDP gains in the fourth quarter, even as overall growth moderates a bit. Trump on signing Tax […]
    Marcus Nunes

In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.

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