NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.
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Tenets Of Our View
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
RSS Feed
- NGDP Outlook Update – Outlook Moves Lower March 19, 2019The NGDP outlook continues to deteriorate. We’d known for a few quarters now that growth was likely to slacken in 2019 compared with the robust 2018, but the combined effects of the market draw down and weaker than forecasted NGDP and NGDI have sapped the model’s outlook far beyond what was anticipated. To put some […]Justin Iriving
In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
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