NGDP Growth Forecast
Our market-driven nominal GDP forecast for growth four quarters ahead. Updated using closing prices for each trading day.
Go here for the latest forecasts and the NGDP Outlook commentary for when significant shifts occur to our Forecast.
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Tenets Of Our View
We at NGDP Advisers pride ourselves on having a coherent and unified theory of the macro economy. Although our approach is built on mainstream academic macro, the Market Monetarist synthesis to which we subscribe emphasizes certain points, and frame issues in such a way as to make some of our positions puzzling to new readers.
To help new readers and potential subscribers better understand where we come from, we present a series laying out how we see things. We address the following points:
1. The-price-of-money
2. Interest-rates-tell-you-little-about-the-stance-of-monetary-policy
3. Production-cant-be-faked
4. Why-nominal-gdp-matters
5. There-is-no-business-cycle
6. Why-confidence-doesnt-matter
7. Markets-are-good-forecasters
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- The “Bastiat Boom” October 16, 2018Retail sales frustrated expectations. It´s not that consumer spending is weakening but is now being properly measured again. After Harvey hit in August 2017, there were a lot of “broken windows” that had to be replaced. Auto is a case in point. Between May and August of this year, retail sales growth averaged 6.5% year-on-year. […]Marcus Nunes
In a world where macroeconomic analysis is widely perceived to have failed, NGDP Advisers stands out as the rare Macro consultancy with a fully-fledged theory of the economy. Where other firms always seem to predict mean reversion and turn to ad hoc explanations for the latest developments, NGDP Advisers draw on the most compelling and predictive macroeconomic model yet devised: Market Monetarism.
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