Retail Sales: Not much solace

After the uplift in sales due to the August/September 2017 storms, things have calmed down, despite fiscal stimulus (tax cuts), something clearly indicated by sales ex auto & gas, a measure of core sales.

A comparison with another late cycle period (late 1990s) is illustrative.

At the 8:30 AM mark, the 10-year yield jumped. Was the retail sales signal that powerful? Will it last? Not likely.


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