Will the Fed ‘Scrooge’ things?

Week ending Friday December 22nd 2017 This week we had some additional light shed on the current big question for market watchers: “what will Q4 NGDP growth be?” This is a weighty question because the foremost statistical driver of future NGDP growth is recent NGDP growth, one, two, three quarters back. The cumulative, quarter-on-quarter growth (think of a 4-quarter moving average of quarterly growth) has tended to foretell growth in coming quarters, so getting a strong Q4 after strong Q3 and acceptable Q2 would bode well for 2018, while a weak read would dash our hopes of an enduring “Trump…

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