NGDP Update May 2017

The NGDP outlook has held mostly steady over the past month, with the year-over-year figure for Q2 of 2018 fluctuation from a maximum of 3.9% to a minimum of 3.75%. This narrow range of variation came despite the introduction of the first estimate of NGDP for Q1 of 2017 on April 28th , which lowered the year-ahead forecast by less than a tenth of a percentage point. The NGDP outlook for Q1 of 2018 that is, the datum we forecast last quarter, is similarly holding up rather well. This figure is currently tracking just under 4%, in line with the…

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