A Modest upturn in the outlook

The outlook has improved since February 2016. According to our NGDP forecasting system, which is statistically driven, so immune to partisan bias or wishful thinking, a full percentage point of nominal GDP has been added to the outlook.  We have gone from the low 3%s to the low 4%s in terms of expected year-ahead growth. Our normal plot for showing these data reports only the latest year-ahead forecast. However, to get this forecast, we forecast quarterly GDP behind the scenes, and then do the needed calculations to update the plot. This is a convenient way of showing how the outlook…

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