The TTC (Trump Tax Cut) & Retail Sales

The “optimist”:

A drop in prices at the pump and a pick-up in wages at the low end of the income strata are delivering more broad-based gains in consumer spending. Look for consumers to remain a driver of GDP gains in the fourth quarter, even as overall growth moderates a bit.

Trump on signing Tax Cut in December 2017:

And just as I promised the American people from this podium 11 months ago, we enacted the biggest tax cuts and reforms in American history. Our massive tax cuts provide tremendous relief for the middle class and small business.

Reality:

Excluding the oil price effect that drives gas station sales, consumer spending growth throughout 2018 has remained near the low end of recent history, with no change observed after the passage of the reform bill.

Bottom line: The long depression just keeps getting longer!

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