October 4, 2018

Late into the first quarter of the 21st century, the Fed is still in the Dark Age!

That was my take from Jay Powell´s NABE speech, where he placed the Phillips Curve at the center of the FOMCs decision-making process. Below I reproduce a few paragraphs of the speech, which will put my discussion in perspective: …For example, the medians of the most recent projections from FOMC participants and the Survey of Professional Forecasters, as well as the most recent Congressional Budget Office (CBO) forecast, all have the unemployment rate remaining below 4 percent through the end of 2020, with inflation staying very near 2 percent over the same period. From the standpoint of our dual mandate,… Read More

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