The “catch-up” growth should not be construed as reflecting a “strong economy”. Total industry capacity utilization provides the same information: the economy is weak, not strong, as some like to call it.
The chart shows that overall retail sales swings to the tune of gasoline prices. The pick-up in overall sales for the past two years shows the close connection between the two. If you take away the gasoline price factor, the US consumer does not look so good. Retail sales are materially worse now than during 2014, before the “Yellen slump” set in. The economy is better than it was in 2015 and 2016, but that is not saying much. The reality is the economy is in depression mode. Early moves to “reflate” were quickly aborted. If you take Lael Brainard´s… Read More
There are many who labor in relative obscurity in econo-land, much to the loss of macroeconomics. Kevin Erdmann, author of the blog The Idiosyncratic Whisk, has consistently produced the most insightful commentary on housing and finance on the web, and probably anywhere for that matter. One of Erdmann’s monthly “chores” is to produce the CPI core sans shelter index. The CPI core minus shelter costs rose at a 0.6% annual rate in the last six months, reports Erdmann. The chart shows the year-on-year core CPI less shelter. If the US has an inflation problem, obviously housing is playing a major… Read More