What´s up with industrial production?

Is this a good description?

“Industrial production jumped 0.6 percent in June, rebounding from a 0.5 percent drop in May. Over the past year, industrial production is up 3.8 percent, continuing a modest upward trend in growth.”

That appears to be just a rebound from a significant previous drop. We´ll have to wait for more prints to see if an upward trend takes hold (unlikely).

In “olden times”, a slightly smaller drop in industrial production was associated with a recession (2001). Why not recently?

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  1. // Reply

    I think this is an oil & gas story. Oil prices crashed in 2014/2015 and with it the oil component of industrial production. Manufacturing had a small dip, but not like in 2001. Glut of oil and a small slow down in NGDP. Other commodities were weak too, which probably hurt metals, not that that is a big component.

    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IPMAN

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