June 3, 2018

Week Ending Friday June 1, 2018 Market movements last week implied modestly lower NGDP growth in the coming year. Our market-driven forecast, which we use to cut through the noise and detect the meaning of aggregate market moves, fell from 4.0% to 3.9%, Thursday-to-Thursday. This small move lower reflected lower copper and oil prices, a stronger dollar, lower stocks, lower 5-year TIPS spreads and a more gently sloping yield curve. The 5-year yield fell from 2.82% to 2.68%, and the two-year from 2.5% to 2.4%, while shorted dated bonds were little changed. There were potentially important data releases last week,… Read More