May 15, 2018

Retail Sales: Not much solace

After the uplift in sales due to the August/September 2017 storms, things have calmed down, despite fiscal stimulus (tax cuts), something clearly indicated by sales ex auto & gas, a measure of core sales. A comparison with another late cycle period (late 1990s) is illustrative. At the 8:30 AM mark, the 10-year yield jumped. Was the retail sales signal that powerful? Will it last? Not likely.