April 7, 2018

The Week Ending Friday April 6th 2018 Jerome Powell does not impress us so far. His autopilot rate rise in March seemed unnecessary, lacking any real rationale apart from the intellectually bankrupt “normalization” theme. His speech on Friday moved markets little at first, but selling momentum in equities increased as trade war worries built a lethal cocktail of monetary tightening combined with falling growth expectations. Other market indicators were relatively quiet. Our new NGDP Forecast for 2019Q2 has not started well, having fallen back on the recent market wobbles. Is Powell on opioids? We gasped when he attributed the low Labor Force… Read More