NGDP Outlook Update Q1 2018

As historically unremarkable as present economic conditions are, it’s still worth noting they were unexpected (at least by us, and many others). It was only a year ago that NGDP expectations were not far from 3.5%; today NGDP is expected to fly along just around 4.7% year-over-year for the next two quarters, closing at 4.25% for the year ending 2019Q1. We are now at a multiyear high in terms of a relatively simple, consistent methodology, forecasting NGDP, “t plus one year”. This forecast is mostly driven by recent NGDP changes, which is why it is not too inaccurate in a…

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