Celebration

With the GDP report we hear lot´s of celebratory comments. A typical one:

The U.S. appears to have entered a stage of stronger economic growth, years into a historically modest expansion.

Unfortunately, that´s not true. Just look at the chart. The “uptake” in 2014 was much stronger, but fizzled. This time, it´s weaker. Will it be more long lasting? The Fed seems to think that if you “drive slowly, you´ll grow longer”!

In several other instances, even those characterized by deep depressions, the economy recovered. That simply has not happened this time.

Observation: It is said that this expansion is modest exactly because it was not preceded by a recovery phase.

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