January 7, 2018

Week ending Friday January 5th 2018 There was no break in trends a far as markets were concerned. Equities hit new highs, bond yields rose gently across the curve and the USD weakened. These are all good signs for better nominal GDP growth ahead.  Our NGDP growth forecast for 2018Q4 jumped to 4.3% in the week after Christmas and would probably be higher now. We won’t see that as we always focus on four quarters ahead so the next NGDP Forecast release will be for 2019Q1. We (and markets and nowcasts) expect 2017Q4 to have been another quarter of decent… Read More