Retail sales had a good month in November, at least when compared with the past several years.
From the chart below, you see that the magnitude of the depression, which has been widening, was a tiny bit reduced with the November retail sales print.
This post Harvey & Irma surge mirrors the surge in early 2014, which followed winter storms and historic colds of that season´s polar vortex.
After that, sales went into a long “sleepy spell”, moving up very slowly. Early this year, they went into “coma”, simply not budging, being awakened by the August/September storms.
Although many, even many at the FOMC, including Yellen, are talking about the synchronized pick –up that´s going in global growth, an exaggeration if you believe in the data collected and projected by the IMF, it is likely that retail sales will slip back into “sleepy mode”.
The irony is that in less than 2 years, this will not only become the longest expansion in US history, but also the longest depression!