December 1, 2017

Faster NGDP Growth, what does it mean?

NGDP growth has accelerated in recent quarters. When we average NGDP and NGDI (Nominal Gross Domestic Income), we get, at a yearly pace, 5% for Q3, 3.7% for Q2 and 4% for Q1. Not jaw-dropping numbers, but the best run we’ve seen since 2014. It’s also worth looking at the figures in quarterly form, rather than just year-over-year, as inconvenient as it may be. It turns outs that the best way to predict NGDP growth, is to simply look at recent quarterly growth. In developing our forecast models, we found that sub-models that rely on only a single quarter of… Read More

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