November 13, 2017

Faulty, but dangerous, reasoning

From “Fed-watcher” Tim Duy: The Federal Reserve believes the economy currently operates close to if not a little beyond full employment. The unemployment rate fell to 4.1% in October, well below the Fed’s longer run estimate and the 4.4% low of the last cycle. And note the broader U-6 unemployment rate, which includes measures of underemployment, fell to 7.9%, the low of the last cycle. By these metrics, conditions are fast approaching those the late-90’s. I believe the economy will sustain enough momentum to hit that point within the next six months. We do not have much experience with an… Read More