NGDP Forecast Update: Holding Above 4%

Despite all the headlines and data releases in September, the near-term outlook held quite steady since our last update, with the latest reading for our 2018Q3 NGDP forecast around 4% after rounding. This means the economy is set to be a little less “cool” in 2018 than 2017, but not by a whole lot. There’s been a tiny drawdown, about 0.05 percentage points since last week, but such a small move is “decimal dust” in the world of macro, and is really only noticeable because the forecast was glued to 4.1% for most of the month. New GDP and Gross…

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