Bullard: The “probably not” man at the FOMC

Questions for U.S. monetary policy Is U.S. economic growth poised for a rebound in the second half of 2017, as compared to the first half? Is the downside inflation surprise in the first half of 2017 likely to reverse in the second half of 2017? Will continued strong performance of U.S. labor markets put upward pressure on inflation? • The answer to all these questions: “Probably not.” And concludes: Recent data indicate that U.S. real GDP growth remains consistent with the low-growth regime of recent years. U.S. inflation has surprised to the downside in recent months, and the surprise is…

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