- Is U.S. economic growth poised for a rebound in the second half of 2017, as compared to the first half?
- Is the downside inflation surprise in the first half of 2017 likely to reverse in the second half of 2017?
- Will continued strong performance of U.S. labor markets put upward pressure on inflation? •
The answer to all these questions:
- Recent data indicate that U.S. real GDP growth remains consistent with the low-growth regime of recent years.
- U.S. inflation has surprised to the downside in recent months, and the surprise is unlikely to reverse during 2017.
- Low unemployment readings are probably not an indicator of meaningfully higher inflation over the forecast horizon.
- The current level of the policy rate is appropriate given current macroeconomic data.
He does much better than many of his peers, especially his boss Yellen.