Stable but Dismal

In Business Insider, Pedro da Costa writes:

Indeed, one remarkable trend of the recent economic recovery, which is on track to be the longest but also weakest expansion on record, has been the incredibly steady pace of job-market gains, which once fluctuated much more drastically from month to month.

“To our mind what is truly remarkable is the stability of this jobs growth, not solely its headline strength,” said Rick Rieder, BlackRock’s chief investment officer, in a statement following the employment report.

In fact, everything is remarkably stable in this cycle, but everything is also remarkably dismal.

First the stability aspect

Real growth

Employment change

Core PCE prices

Now, the dismal aspect (comparing the four longest cycles (Peak to Peak))

NGDP

RGDP

Employment

This one has been running so slowly that it could very well go on to break the record. Unfortunately, the Fed wants to slow it even more, maybe to make the depression go on forever!

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