NGDP Update: 2018Q3 Forecast begins

It is the start of a new quarter, this means we move our focus from the tired old 2018Q2 forecast (shown in the plot below as the orange line) and move on to the exciting and fresh 2018Q3 forecast (the blue/purple line). As always, the discontinuity between the two forecast lines is a feature, not a bug. To the unfamiliar, the forecast may appear to have fallen, but really, it is not much changed. We are just looking at a different point in the forecast now. The take-home remains unchanged from previous updates. The big picture is this: the economy…

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