NGDP Update: 2018Q3 Forecast begins

It is the start of a new quarter, this means we move our focus from the tired old 2018Q2 forecast (shown in the plot below as the orange line) and move on to the exciting and fresh 2018Q3 forecast (the blue/purple line). As always, the discontinuity between the two forecast lines is a feature, not a bug.

To the unfamiliar, the forecast may appear to have fallen, but really, it is not much changed. We are just looking at a different point in the forecast now.

The take-home remains unchanged from previous updates. The big picture is this: the economy is remarkably stable, quarter-to-quarter. Month-to-month variance in most of the leading indicators is at or near a historical low point. There is no imminent risk of recession, but NGDP growth is set to be rather low over the next year, and with it, most other more disaggregated measures of income and spending including wages and consumer spending. Markets are saying we will get more of the same in 2018 and markets are usually right.


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