May 16, 2017

“Curve-edge” analysis can mislead

Leading to conclusions such as this one: From the news: U.S. industrial output rose sharply in April, a sign of underlying strength in the economy. And Industrial production—a measure of output at factories, mines and utilities—jumped 1.0% from a month earlier, the Federal Reserve said Tuesday. That was the largest gain in more than three years Some months ago, however, it registered the biggest loss in three years! When you look at the level of industrial production, you see that even after the “largest gain in more than three year”, it is still below the level of 10 years ago, or… Read More