NFIB

The August NFIB survey fitted in with other industry-side surveys from both manufacturing and services sectors. Current job openings rose quite strong mirroring the Job Openings survey, but it is unclear how meaningful these indicators are. Increased ease of advertising openings may mean there is a secular change occurring in the job search market. It may mean that strong secular change within employment as tech employees are more needed than ever but are hard to find at any price. That said the trend probably means most of all that there is just not enough money or sales to bid up… Read More

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The Small Business Confidence Index for July recorded a small miss versus expectations but was still up on the prior month. Employment trends and actual conditions are muted by optimism about the economy as a whole has risen. The overall trend is now one of modest improvement although well down on normal levels for an expansionary period. The NFIB survey echoes other surveys from the two PMIs (ISM and Markit) for manufacturing in particular and from data like payrolls and the broader Change in LMCI. It seems as if the FOMC’s rapid and dovish response to those very poor May… Read More

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A very modest increase in small business optimism did nothing to alter small business owners’ view that the economy is struggling. The opening paragraphs of the press release say it all: The Index of Small Business Optimism rose two tenths of a point in May to 93.8, a negligible increase showing no real enthusiasm for making capital outlays, increasing inventories, or expanding, according to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB). “The bottom line is that without an empowered small business sector, the economy will grow at a mediocre pace,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. There seems to be… Read More

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