The market-driven nominal GDP forecast is updated using closing prices of a set of assets for each trading day. The plot below shows year-ahead forecasts for each day, in effect showing what markets expected for nominal growth in the coming year at each particular day. The NGDP forecast is driven by the S&P 500, 5-year TIPS spreads, copper prices, 3-month Treasury bill yields, two-year Treasury yields, the US dollar index and front-month oil futures. Aside from the design of the models used to produce the forecast, no human judgement or secondary adjustment is used in the forecast: only the market data and government nominal GDP statistics are used to produce the forecast.
The forecast is of quarterly, year-on-year NGDP growth for a year ahead. At the end of each quarter our forecast trips over into a new quarter, so generating a discrete break at that point. We look at medium term growth as it excludes near term noise from fiscal policy changes, volatile price moves, inventories and net exports. Trend growth is what matters and that is best seen by looking out further than just one or two quarters.