Weekly Assessments

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Quiet week after Fed normalization, economy can do nothing but slow

Week ending Friday 23rd 2017 The small rollercoaster on which short term interest rate expectations have been riding continued early this week as in a pre-market speech on Monday Bill Dudley reaffirmed the consensus FOMC case for one more rate rise this year. What else could he say so soon after the permanent members (had

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Week ending Friday 16th 2017 Inflation data, of all varieties, certainly do not support the Federal Reserve´s tightening plans. It seems even some at the FOMC are beginning to realize that fact. While in March there was just one member who thought rates should end 2017 at the 1-1.25% range, after the June meeting that

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Week ending Friday 9th 2017 A very calm weak in US markets. A small flurry of excitement on Thursday as the FAAAM stocks caused NASDAQ to hit new highs before reversing on Friday, as some brokers fretted about concentration risk and valuation. A modest drift up in the USD was mainly due to weakness elsewhere.

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Week ending Friday 2nd June 2017 Another week another 1% on the S&P500. This week we also saw action in the USD and bonds. Continuing mixed surveys of activity plus subdued economic data for April (Personal Income and Outlays) and May (payrolls and wage growth) weakened the USD and brought bond yields lower. The curve

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Week ending Friday 19th May 2017 A mixed week in terms of economic news led the equity markets to end up nearly where they started, but politics made a big splash that was mostly dissipated. Underlying economic trends trump politics, it seems. The USD has maintained its recent run of weakness, undoubtedly helping equities too.

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Week ending Friday 12th May 2017 Monday’s relief rally #2 on the establishment in France winning over LePen lasted about a week. All it took was a bit of dull data from US inflation and US retail sales to see US bond yields back to where they were at the start, or even lower. They

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The “Dudley put” in operation

Week ending Friday 28th April 2017 A relief rally from fears of a tail risk result in the French election plus some good tech earnings led to a 1.% jump early in the week for US equities. There were no implications from or to monetary policy. The US equity rally was also supported by the

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Week ending Friday 21st April 2017 A super quiet week in US markets with most asset classes shuffling sideways in a tight range. The oil price gapped down twice falling 7% over the week as mounting US production coincided with (unsurprising to us) mounting scepticism over the powers of OPEC to enforce production cuts. Surveys

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