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James Alexander/Mar 16, 2016 It had already been argued here last month that the FOMC looked like it was splitting judged by the Janu ary 2016 Minutes. We said that this was a good idea given the hopeless leadership from the Yellen/Fischer axis. It has also been looking like William Dudley, newly reappointed as governor
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James Alexander/Mar 3, 2016 My last post was on the need to change the 2% inflation target to higher one or, better still, switch to NGDP growth targeting. However, by even talking about inflation I feel it is easy to get sucked into a black hole of nonsense chatter about a concept so hard to
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Marcus Nunes/Feb 23, 2016 That may be the role of industrial production growth presented as YoY growth of the 6-month moving average. Note that it only turns negative after a recession (as defined by the NBER) has already begun. Sometimes quite a way into the recession (as in the 1973, 1981 and 1990 recessions, for
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James Alexander/Feb 18, 2016 Call me a conspiracy theorist but when three unrelated beasts of the global financial establishment all start talking about the same, previously unfashionable, thing it’s a bit of a coincidence. Maybe Larry’s put it in the agenda of next week’s G20? If it’s not, it should be. George Osborne: The MPC
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James Alexander/Feb 17, 2016 It has been noted already by Market Monetarists and others that George Osborne and his UK Treasury team are concerned about the low level of expected Nominal GDP growth in the UK. The latest January 2016 CPI figures showing just 0.3% YoY growth will only worry them more. The correct inflation
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Benjamin Cole/Feb 13, 2016 February 11, 2016, Washington, D.C.—Defiantly defending the U.S. Federal Reserve’s 3% inflation floor, Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s swatted away questions from U.S. Senators who said lower rates of inflation could be obtained safely. The “public and representatives have embraced thickets of structural impediments to growth,” retorted Yellen. “For the economy to
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Marcus Nunes/Feb 12, 2016 The next recession could be around the corner, and the Fed isn’t ready for it: Around the world, markets are in chaos. Japan’s stock market plunged 5 percent on Friday, while markets in France, Germany, and the UK all saw big losses on Thursday. The US stock market is doing better
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