Data Watch

image_pdfimage_print

Durable Goods Order also indicate the “confidence surge” is weakening

What makes Durable Goods Orders a “high profile” indicator is that it can foreshadow significant changes in economic activity sooner than other statistics. It is important to keep in mind, however, durable goods orders are highly volatile month-to-month due, in large measure, to sudden large changes in orders for defense goods and aircraft. In order

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

Although we do not believe that the PMI surveys are very good at predicting levels of manufacturing, services or total output they may be better at indicating turning points. The release today of the March preliminary PMI surveys by Markit for US manufacturing and services showed that February’s “blip” down was more of a thing

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

Is This The Kind Of Chart That Makes A Central Bank Tighten Up?

Here is the U.S. Labor Markets Conditions Index (LCMI) for 2006 through latest reading, for February: Ironically enough, the LMCI is a creation not of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, or a do-goody liberal outfit, but of…the U.S. Federal Reserve. That’s right, the same central bank that has an inclination towards tight money is the

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

The CPI release – Headline inflation is about to turn down

The CPI release – Headline inflation is about to turn down From the news: The consumer-price index, measuring what Americans pay for everything from cars to dental care, increased 0.1% in February from a month earlier, the Labor Department said Wednesday. Outside of energy and food costs, so-called core prices rose 0.2%. The figures matched

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

The February NFIB Small Business Confidence survey showed that the Trump bounce in confidence is intact. However, the NFIB really wants to see action, especially on health care and taxes: “It is clear from our data that optimism skyrocketed after the election because small business owners anticipated a change in policy,” said NFIB President and CEO Juanita

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

Feb Payrolls show news ends up as bad news, now. Still, “paving the way…”

The February payrolls were OK in terms of slightly improving trends in most measures. The numbers were expected to be good after the strong ADP Job Hires data earlier in the week. New jobs, participation rates and wage growth were all fine in terms of the Long Depression in which the economy continues to drift. You really

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

Hoorah, inflation “closing in” on target

From the news: U.S. inflation is closing in on the Federal Reserve’s long-elusive 2% annual target, the latest evidence of firming price pressures that could bolster the case for the U.S. central bank to raise short-term interest rates as soon as this month. It´s convenient to be able to pick and choose the number you

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

GDP Unchanged

Markets expected a small upward revision from the preliminary release, to 2.1% annualized growth. Unfortunately, the number remained the same: 1.9% both annualized and on a year-over-year basis. The negative and positive effects from the Fed are illustrated. Unfortunately, the Fed insists it will do its best efforts to keep the economy in a slump.

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

The picture of a depressed economy through the lenses of durable goods orders

The “Pollyanna’s”: “The weakness of underlying orders is probably just some payback after strong gains in previous months rather than the start of a renewed downward trend,” said Andrew Hunter, U.S. economist at Capital Economics, in a note to clients. The U.S. manufacturing sector has gained traction in recent months following a weak stretch caused

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register

We have already shown the increasing unreliability of the various industry confidence surveys like the PMI from the ISM and from Markit for manufacturing and services. They are poor at predicting levels of activity and thus levels of GDP. They do appear to have some use at predicting turning points, even if at low levels of growth. So,

This content is for Free Trial, Individual Subscriber and Corporate Subscriber members only.
Log In Register