January 16, 2018

NGDP Outlook Update January 2018

Our new NGDP forecast, for 2019Q1, is coming in a bit north of 4.1%. This is the first time we’ve started a new forecast above 4.0%, the previous vintage starting a 3.9%. We begin a new forecast every quarter. By convention, we always look one year ahead of the current quarter. The current upward drift in the forecast is driven by WTI oil, stocks and to a lesser extent the yield curve steepness. TIPS spreads have been an erratic force on the forecast. As strong as the forecast is, relative to the outlook in recent years, it’s probably too bearish.… Read More


When the Reagan Boom ended, the Great Moderation began

On July 1 1985, the New Republic published an article by Michael Barker titled “The end of the Reagan boom” Excerpts: What’s going on here? Only a year ago, the economy was racing along at the fastest clip in more than 30 years. Personal income was up, inflation was down, and to many Americans, if seemed positively churlish to deny that President Reagan had succeeded in “laying the foundations for a decade of supply-side growth.” … now, seven months after the election, just when we thought it was going to be “morning in America” for at least another four years,… Read More