A new quarter, a new forecast

We’re now in the second quarter of 2017, so, in keeping with our convention to focus on the year-ahead part of the NGDP outlook, we are switching from the 2018Q1 forecast to the 2018Q2 forecast. The forecast for 2018Q2 is notably lower than that for 2018Q1, falling from nearly 4.1% year-over-year to just over 3.8%   This shouldn’t be taken to mean that the outlook has changed, we simply haven’t been making a point to show you the 2018Q2 forecast until now. Our forecast procedure works by forecasting nominal GDP amounts for the six quarters following the latest available GDP…

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