August Surveys

Although July surveys and data appeared mixed, with manufacturing doing OK and services less well, August surveys are running remarkably poorly.

  • First off was NY Empire State manufacturing and it was bad, even if in a volatile series.
  • The Philly Fed was in line for manufacturing within a dull trend but its employment survey was very poor.
  • Markit’s “flash” manufacturing PMI did not follow through on July’s strong data point.
  • Richmond Fed had a very weak reading for manufacturing in an another admittedly volatile series. Its services survey fell back to zero.
  • Today, the “flash” Markit services PMI was weak on a dull trend.
  • And, also today, the KC Fed manufacturing and wider composite indexes were both weak and weaker than expected.

These August current month readings are only surveys but do not in any way support a September rate hike. If anything, these surveys point to monetary easing being necessary.

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